SITREP 1st Qtr 2025

Global Overview 2025

Crisis Watch’s conflict tracker highlights one resolution opportunity and seven conflict risks in 2025. 

Marking a major breakthrough, Israel and Hamas struck a ceasefire agreement in Gaza after more than fifteen months of war. The deal’s three phases, if completed, should lead to a permanent ceasefire but the agreement’s ambiguities and/or far-right pressure in Israel could derail the process and see war resume, while Israeli raids and settler violence could further rise in the West Bank. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen scaled down their anti-Israel and Red Sea attacks after the Gaza ceasefire. Yet increased U.S.-Israeli pressure could prompt the group to restart attacks or escalate their conflict with Yemeni government forces.

The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group seized Goma, a city of one million people, in DR Congo’s North Kivu province (see our Conflict in Focus). Clashes killed hundreds and displaced hundreds of thousands. The situation could further deteriorate if the conflict spreads further into neighbouring South Kivu, as the next target could well be the province’s capital Bukavu. There is a real risk of a wider regional conflagration, which could further pull in Burundi, whose troops have already been heavily involved in the fighting alongside their Congolese allies, threatening the stability of its government. 

Momentum swung in favour of Sudan’s army as...