China’s Soft Takeover of Taiwan

By Olivier Guitta

Two years ago, Taiwan was a purely Chinese issue but the invasion by Russia of Ukraine and China’s more aggressive posturing has changed that picture. For proof, nearly half of American adults (47%) are now saying that tensions between mainland China and Taiwan are a very serious problem for the United States, up 19 percentage points since February 2021. China can’t afford a risky and possibly disastrous military campaign or a blockade of Taiwan that will be a declaration of war. Therefore, a soft takeover by covert means like influencing the January 2024 presidential elections could be Beijing’s strategy. 7 Journal of Counterterrorism & Homeland Security International Vol. 28, No. 2 On almost a weekly basis, we are bombarded with reports, statements on when China will invade military Taiwan; for many in the U.S. the key date is 2027. While it makes sense for the US military and politicians alike to convey the message that the threat is very real and that America would respond to such an attack, Beijing doesn’t have to resort to violence to take over Taiwan. Taiwan’s President Tsai said that while the threat of military invasion can’t be ignored, China’s real plan is to force Taiwan to submit through nonmilitary means: “I think China has this belief that the best way to win the war is without war.” China’s leader Xi Jinping has indeed urged the Communist Party to “win the hearts and minds” of people in Taiwan as part of a “national rejuvenation” as t...