Dragon’s Gambit: China’s Gray Zone Strategy In The South China Sea

Irregular Warfare continues to struggle with the proper balance between traditional concerns, as embodied in the five core activities – COIN, CT, IDAD, UW, and SO – and competition – the use of irregular approaches to wage war in the gray zone. Indeed, to use the term “war” remains contested, though what is occurring can hardly be called peace. One thinks immediately of Russian and Iranian actions, which are violent in every aspect save in our own minds. To these, of course, must be added the actions of China and North Korea, with the former being of greatest moment due to the sheer power which has now been amassed by Beijing. It is this subject to which this article speaks, focusing upon the challenge to a U.S. partner, Indonesia.

When Deng Xiaoping lifted the veil of Mao’s isolationism for China in 1978, many shared an optimistic view that the country would gradually embrace a form of liberalization. The “open up” policy was predicted to bring China closer to democratization, which is preferable for preserving the world’s peace and stability.[1] Antithetical to such an optimistic view, China has since 2012 sought to claim ownership of most of the South China Sea (SCS), with Beijing’s coercion now an integral component of the 21st-century strategic environment, a dramatic departure from its international relations theme of “peaceful development” that prevailed during Hu Jintao’s leadership in the first decade of the century.[2] Under Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Par...