The First 48 hours: Synthetic Media As A Post-Attack Accelerant

By David Gewirtz
In the first 48 hours after an attack, certainty is scarce. The incident may be a terrorist attack, an active shooter, a bombing, a sabotage event, a cyber intrusion, or a coordinated physical assault. Casualty numbers may shift. Responsibility may be unclear. Motive may be contested. Agencies, companies, hospitals, schools, and public officials may all be operating from partial information while stakeholders demand immediate answers.
Such an unstable environment is now vulnerable to a second wave. Synthetic media (actual “fake news”) produced by the attackers or unrelated actors with nefarious goals can be used to sculpt the meaning of the attack in the public’s mind in order to drive an agenda.
A fake CEO audio message can suggest a cover-up. A forged agency memo can assign blame prematurely. A synthetic video can appear to show an official making an inflammatory admission. A doctored screenshot can invent a warning that was supposedly ignored. A fake ransom note or manifesto can redirect suspicion toward a preferred target.
The central risk is acceleration. Synthetic media does not need to create the crisis. The attack has already done that. The purpose of this sort of fake news is to intensify fear, redirect blame, fracture trust, and force leaders to respond on terrain chosen by others. While the first wave produces actual physical harm, the second wave fights to define what that harm means.
Why The First 48 Hours Are Vulnerable
In the first 48 hours, ke...