IACSP Homeland Security Bookshelf V26N1 2020

By Dr. Joshua Sinai

Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences:A Test-Drive Method for Critical Decision-Making in Organizations

Richard M. Adler, (New York, NY: Springer, 2020), 304 pages, $84.99 [Hardcover], ISBN: 978-3-0303-2713-2.

This is a highly innovative method for critical decision-making in an organizational setting. Utilizing the Law of Unintended Consequences, it explains the reasons for decision failures and how the author’s innovative method for “test driving” decisions that combines scenario planning and “what-if” simulations enables security professionals to analyze and refine complex decisions to generate ones that are effective in advancing their organizations’ well-being. One of the book’s examples describes a decision test-drive model for managing portfolios of risks, and applies it to evaluate the ROI of alternative counter-terrorism investment strategies. Dr. Adler is President and Chief Architect of DecisionPath (http://decpath.com), in Winchester, MA.

Table of Contents: Introduction; Part 1: Diagnosis; Critical Decisions; The Law of Unintended Consequences; Psychology of Critical Decision-Making; Rational Decision-Making; Part II: Treatment; Countering Cognitive Biases; Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Their Discontents; Modeling and Simulation; Test Drive Your Critical Decisions; Part III: Competitive Marketing Strategy; Disruptive Growth; Managing Enterprise Risk; Enabling Organizational Change; Part IV: Coda; Pragmatics;...