SITREP 2020 4TH QTR

The latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in nine countries and conflict areas, as well as an improved situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In Kashmir, tensions escalated sharply amid deadly incidents along the Line of Control dividing Pakistani- and Indian-administered Kashmir, resulting in India’s highest monthly military casualty toll since April.

In Mozambique, Islamist militants staged a large-scale offensive in the far north, seizing their second district capital since August and killing scores. Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a Russian-brokered ceasefire to end six weeks of deadly hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Looking ahead to 2021, Crisis Watch warns of four conflict risks.

In Yemen, Washington’s likely designation of the Huthis as a terrorist organisation could trigger retaliatory attacks and hamper humanitarian operations as the UN warns of looming famine.

In Western Sahara, the 1991 ceasefire between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front collapsed, sparking concerns that the long-frozen conflict could reignite.

Tensions increased in the Central African Republic over former President Bozizé’s presidential candidacy, raising risks of violence around the vote scheduled for 27 December. A violent conflict that erupted in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, killing thousands and prompting more than 43,000 refugees to flee into eastern Sudan, could continue. Although federal forces captured Tigray’s regional ...