Why East/West Russian Relations Are Unlikely To Ever Return To “Normal”

By David Gewirtz

Here’s the problem with writing about unfolding events for a quarterly magazine: delay time. By the time you read this, events may have changed the terrain. As you read this, you will know things I -- coming to you from months earlier -- cannot possibly know. It’s not fog of war. It’s fog of time.

When it comes to the Russia/Ukraine war, for example, there’s a lot I don’t know. Does Putin’s health further decline? Does Russia keep pushing its ground game in an attempt to fragment Ukraine? Is there (somehow, but very unlikely) some sort of peace accord? Was the three quarter of a century old concept of mutually assured destruction kicked to the curb by Vlad and his cronies, and were (the thought of this is horrifying) nukes used?

By the time you read this, some of those questions may be answered.

But there is something I do know. Something that has already occurred and will be a factor for at least a generation. Here it is: the Russia we have come to know, and felt reasonably safe doing business with for the past 20 years, is irrevocably destroyed. Gone.

Many western tech companies comfortably and confidently worked with Russian software engineers. No more. Many western companies and consumers comfortably and confidently bought Russian-built software. No more. Many western brands invested heavily in Russian markets. No more.

Russia’s invasion didn’t just decimate Ukraine -- it did the same to its own economy and business relationships. Two d...