Russia’s Gray Zone Threat to Bulgaria

Lt. Col. Nikolay Y. Naydenov, Bulgaria

Bulgaria is a target of Russia’s gray zone aggression, wherein the Kremlin’s desired goal is to expand its sphere of influence. Russia pursues its goals by capitalizing on selected historical and cultural ties with Bulgaria, in concert with employing the economic instrument of power, waging disinformation, corrupting institutions, using proxies, and exploiting social tensions. Moscow undertakes those destabilizing efforts to enable penetration and dominance in Bulgaria’s political processes.

More globally, Moscow’s objectives with respect to Bulgaria are but one way of attacking NATO and the EU by distorting their coherence and decisionmaking. The challenge is that Bulgaria still has no credible response. Unless this changes, the Kremlin stands to achieve its aims without assuming much strategic risk.

The current strategic security environment is dominated by destabilizing factors and the relocation of the threats to the gray zone. Indeed, the Russian hybrid threat is intensifying and will continue to negatively impact all NATO members, especially those close to Russian borders. Conversely, Bulgarian security will remain relatively safe within the Transatlantic collective defense, crisis management, and partnership. However, in the case of the gray zone aggression, not NATO but the individual targeted nations must respond.

Why Conflict and What Form?

By championing aggressive actions for the resolution of perceived threat...